The patterns of tech...

The patterns of technology and capital bubbles over the past four centuries have repeatedly demonstrated that technologies capable of truly changing the world often undergo one or even multiple bubble cycles. From railways, automobiles, the internet, and blockchain to today’s artificial intelligence, these technologies follow a nearly identical evolutionary trajectory: technological breakthrough → capital frenzy → bubble burst → industry shakeout → infrastructure maturation → value realization. What bursts is never the technology itself, but rather the market’s erroneous expectations regarding the speed at which the technology will deliver on its promise. History consistently shows us that humans tend to overestimate technology in the short term while underestimating it in the long term.